Raziskovalci UL FPP so vključeni v raziskave vpliva novega koronavirusa na promet. Gospodarsko usmerjen pristop je privedel do matematičnega modeliranja poteka pandemije. Razvili so dva modela, logistični in klasični model SIR. Razvita Matlab programa sta dobila ime fitVirus in fitVirusCOVID19.
Sprva sta delovala skoraj izključno na podlagi podatkov iz Kitajske. Pokazalo se je, da se je napoved poteka okužb zelo dobro pokrivala z dejanskim potekom. Od takrat se modela uporabljata tudi za druge države in regije po vsem svetu.
Izkazalo se je, da modela zelo dobro delujeta predvsem za države, ki so uvedle strogo karanteno. Model namreč predvideva predvsem stalno populacijo, enakomerno mešanje ljudi in enako verjetnost okrevanja med okuženimi. Model temelji na podatkih, zato je njegova napoved le tako dobra kot so dobri podatki. Z novimi ali spremenjenimi podatki, se spreminja tudi napoved.
Namen modela je le za raziskovalno in pedagoško delo.
Reference:
M. Batista, Estimation of the final size of the coronavirus epidemic by the logistic model (Feb 2020)
M. Batista, Estimation of the final size of the coronavirus epidemic by the SIR model. (Feb 2020),
M. Batista, Estimation of the final size of the COVID-19 epidemic,
M. Batista, Estimation of the final size of the second phase of the coronavirus epidemic by the logistic model,
M. Batista, Estimation of a state of Corona 19 epidemic in August 2020 by multistage logistic model: a case of EU, USA, and World (Update September 2020),
M. Batista, On the Reproduction Number in Epidemic (September 18, 2020). Available at SSRN: or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3694932
Programska orodja:
SIR model:
Compartmental models in epidemiology
The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases
epiEstim model:
Anne Cori, Neil M. Ferguson, Christophe Fraser, Simon Cauchemez , A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics, American Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 178, Issue 9, 1 November 2013, Pages 1505–1512
R.N. Thompson, J.E. Stockwin, R.D. van Gaalen, J.A. Polonsky, Z.N. Kamvar, P.A. Demarsh, E. Dahlqwist, S. Li, E. Miguel, T. Jombart, J. Lessler, S. Cauchemez, A. Cori, Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks, Epidemics, Volume 29, 2019
Serijski interval:
Hiroshi Nishiura, Natalie M Linton, Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov, Serial interval of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections
Zhanwei Du et al., Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases
Sheikh Taslim Ali et al. , Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions
Podatki:
Dodatne informacije
Drugo mnenje:
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva
- ECDC covid19 country overviews
- Johns Hopkins University of Medicine
Arhiv dnevnih napovedi razvoja epidemije v Sloveniji